May 30, 2025 – As the Atlantic braces for what experts predict will be an above-average hurricane season, a perfect storm of environmental factors and political apathy threatens to amplify potential devastation. Communities still scarred from previous storms are facing down a future fraught with uncertainty, fueled by the rising temperatures and slashed budgets that hamstring our capacity to respond effectively.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts between 13 and 19 named storms this season, which officially kicks off on June 1st and runs until November 30th. Within this range, 6 to 10 are expected to reach hurricane status (winds exceeding 74 mph), with 3 to 5 escalating into major hurricanes – Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This system, used to classify hurricanes, ranges from Category 1 (least intense) to Category 5 (most intense) based on sustained wind speeds.

This heightened activity is attributed to a confluence of factors. El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that typically inhibits hurricane formation, is absent this year. This removal of natural restraints coupled with abnormally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic creates an ideal breeding ground for cyclones.

« Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, » warns Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami, « and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we’ve seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era. » These balmy waters can fuel rapid intensification, a terrifying phenomenon where storms quickly balloon in strength right before making landfall, leaving communities scrambling for safety.

But the threat extends beyond mere meteorological projections. Looming budget and staffing cuts at crucial agencies like the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are sparking outrage. The NWS provides localized warnings about storm surge, flooding, and wind impacts, while FEMA is a frontline service in federal disaster response to help states quickly recover. These cuts, as reported, represent a grave gamble with public safety.

« It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be, » Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami, laments. « But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations. » The reduction in weather balloon launches, vital for understanding large-scale atmospheric patterns, further undermines forecasting accuracy.

The reinstatement of the Hurricane Hunters, specialized meteorologists who brave the storm’s eye to gather invaluable data, offers a glimmer of hope. However, this alone cannot compensate for the systematic dismantling of critical infrastructure.

Experts are also raising concerns about complacency, warning that because seasonal forecasts are less aggressive than previous years, residents might lower their guard. This ignores the fact that for those still recovering from the ravages of past storms – from Florida to the Carolinas – even a single hurricane can be catastrophic. A chilling National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report has also warned the Gulf Coast faces the prospect of a « perpetual disaster recovery » cycle, a prospect only exacerbated by negligence and short-sighted budget constraints.

The situation demands vigilance, informed preparedness, and a radical shift away from policies that prioritize short-term economic gains over the safety and well-being of vulnerable communities. The question isn’t just whether we can predict the next hurricane, but whether we have the collective will to protect ourselves from the storm to come.

Cet article a été fait a partir de ces articles:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/with-a-busy-2025-hurricane-season-forecast-staffing-cuts-and-warm-oceans/, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-doppler-radar-lets-meteorologists-predict-weather-and-save-lives/, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-we-launch-space-telescopes/, https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/what-the-first-results-from-the-global-flourishing-study-tell-us-about-age/, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oil-industry-asks-trump-administration-to-kill-heat-safety-rule/